Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 119

Dated May 09-15, 2010
This week’s report consists of 22 surveys. 1 of these is a multi-country survey while the rest are national surveys. 13 polling organizations have been represented.

ASIA zone- 2 national polls:
West Asia: Turkey

AFRICA zone- 1 National Poll & 1 Multi-Country Polls:

West Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Mali, Niger

East Africa: Kenya

Central Africa: Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Cameroon, DRC, Chad, Burundi

Southern Africa: South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia

EURO-AMERICAS zone-18 national polls:

East Europe- Ukraine, Russia

West Europe- France,

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil, Peru

Australasia: Australia

Subjects covered include:

Politics and Elections

Political economy

Security
Governance

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Religion

Immigration

Commentary:

Constitutional Reforms and the Future of Turkey-

‘The Most Democratic Muslim State’

Turkey is among the most prosperous and democratic Muslim countries. However it also has a long history of military involvement in politics as well as restricting political activity by way of banning political parties in the name of preserving the secular traditions of the Turkish Republic established by Kemal Attaturk. Given this dichotomous history the current constitutional reform package has initiated a hot debate in all the political circles in the country. Some critics are of the view that it will result in the banning of the ruling AKP leading to early parliamentary elections. Given such a scenario how would Turkey’s bid for the EU fair? Or conversely are such aspirations a credible deter for any drastic steps in the national arena?

Since AKP came to power in 2003 there have been several occasions when it came into conflict with the constitutional courts and the military. Despite holding a majority in parliament, several of the initiatives of AKP have been stopped by the judiciary. In 2008, the constitutional court annulled a bill aimed at ending the ban on Islamic headscarves at universities. This year, the AKP was irked by the decision of the HSYK, a panel of the judiciary known for its anti-government stance, to fire a prosecutor who was investigating an alleged coup attempt against the government. Now the AKP says the constitutional court and Turkey's Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) need to be reformed. Critics say the government wants to control the judiciary. In the same stead it is feared that if such an amendment is passed the secular nature of the Turkish republic will cease to exist.

The proposed reforms will make some 30 amendments to 1982 constitution. These deal with the appointment of judges, banning of political parties, and trying the military leaders in civilian courts along with several other changes suggested in the package. Primarily the package directly hurts the interest of the constitutional courts and military leaders.

European Union, U.S, and legal scholars have welcomed the reforms. The Turkish public too seems to support the reforms package. The polls indicate that in the case of a referendum, half of the Turks will vote in favor of the reforms.[1] Meanwhile the opposition parties and circles of constitutional courts seem to oppose the package staunchly. Tayyib Eurdogan, still widely deemed as the most trustworthy politician[2] in the country, vows that his party ‘will either write history or become history’.

Amid this situation, is it likely that the constitutional courts will follow through on dismantling the AKP’s efforts once again as they did in case of efforts to lift the hijab ban from universities? Will AKP also become history as was the case with Rifah and other political parties? Or conversely would the AKP’s stance drastically harm the nation’s secular setup?

[1] http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/35473/turks_would_vote_to_have_a_new_constitution/

[2] http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-210402-103-local-party-leaders-to-decide-baykals-fate.html

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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani's Gallopedia website.