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Saturday, June 26, 2010

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 123

Dated 6th-12th June, 2010

This week’s report consists of 26 surveys. One of these is a multi-country survey of Sub Saharan Africa. 7 polling organizations have been represented.


ASIA zone-1 national poll & 1 Multi National poll:
South Asia: India, Bangladesh

Northeast Asia: China, Japan

Southeast Asia: Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam,

AFRICA zone- 1 national poll & 2 Multi National polls:

West Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,

Central Africa: Chad, Burundi, Rwanda, Congo Kinshasa, Cameroon,
Eastern Africa: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda

Southern Africa: Malawi, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe

EURO-AMERICAS zone-19 national polls & 1 Multi national polls:

East Europe- Russia, Ukraine, Greece

West Europe- UK, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands,

North America- U.S.A
Latin America- Brazil, México, Colombia,

Australasia: Australia

Commentary: Museveni Faces a New Challenge in Uganda

June 07, 2010

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Yoweri Museveni will seek to extend his long tenure as Uganda’s president next year, but the public is currently not as eager to back the incumbent head of state as in years past.

In a survey carried out by TNS/Research International, in May 2010 by the Daily Monitor in Uganda, 43 % of respondents said they would cast a ballot for Museveni in the election that is tentatively scheduled for February 2011. The main opposition leader in the African nation—Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)—is second with 35 %.

When he has had to face the electorate, Museveni has always secured a victory with a majority of the vote in the first round. The latest survey suggests that the opposition may have the potential to force a run-off.

Democratic processes in Uganda have usually been less than perfect. The 2006 election, where Museveni defeated Besigye with 59.2 % of the vote, was criticized by the United Nations (UN) for lacking "an even playing field" and ended with the Supreme Court’s admission that, although irregularities had indeed taken place in the ballot, they were not enough to dispute Museveni’s victory.

While Museveni’s arrival to the political scene—as the leader of the rebel National Resistance Army (NRA)—was originally greeted with hope by the international community, feelings towards Uganda have changed, particularly after several constitutional amendments effectively allowed Museveni to run for president at will.

Besigye has less than a year to pull together an opposition coalition to seek to dethrone a man who first took power when Ronald Reagan was still in the White House.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/museveni_faces_a_new_challenge_in_uganda/

http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/929098/-/item/1/-/5cnn6mz/-/index.html
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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani's Gallopedia website.

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 122

Dated 30 May- 05 June, 2010

This week’s report consists of 23 surveys. 6 of these are multi-country surveys while the rest are national surveys. 10 polling organizations have been represented.


ASIA zone-2 national polls& 2 Multi National poll:
West Asia: Turkey

South Asia: India

Northeast Asia: China, South Korea, Japan

AFRICA zone- 1 national polls:

West Africa: Nigeria,


EURO-AMERICAS zone-14 national polls & 4 Multi national polls:

East Europe- Russia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia, Austria, Bulgaria, Finland, Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Romania

West Europe- Ireland, UK, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, France, Italy, Denmark, Netherlands,

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina, Peru, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Paraguay, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Uruguay, Panama, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia

Australasia: Australia, New Zealand

Subjects covered include:

Politics and Elections

Political economy

Security
Governance

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Environment

Technology

May 2010 Snap Poll Nigerians want Mr President to Solve Power Problems

Following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar Adua, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as the 14th Head of State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the 6th of May, 2010. President Jonathan has cited anti-corruption, power and electoral reform as the key issues he hopes to tackle between now and next year, when elections are scheduled to hold.

A recent survey of Nigerians conducted by NOI Polls shows that the President’s targets are in line with the key concerns of the citizenry. When asked the question ‘What policy area do you think the president should focus on in the remaining months of his tenure?’, a majority of the respondents (45% to be precise) said he should focus on power. 20% of Nigerians believe that the president should concentrate on jobs/employment, 12% listed electoral reform as priority while infrastructural development was mentioned by 9% of the respondents.

Future Elections and the Emergence of Presidential Candidates in Nigeria

As part of the poll, Nigerians were also quizzed about the application of a Zoning Formula in selecting Presidential candidates. To the question ‘Do you think/agree that there should be a zoning formula for the emergence of Presidential candidates in Nigeria?’, more than 6 in 10 (63%) respondents answered ‘No’.

33% responded in the affirmative while 4% either didn’t know or refused to answer the question.

Competence is more important........

Rather than zoning, Nigerians consider other factors to be more significant when choosing the country's president. In response to the question ‘What do you consider to be the most important criteria that should be applied in choosing/selecting the Nigerian President?’, 38% of respondents answered ‘perceived competence’.

Also considered to be important by respondents is the level of education of the candidates (22%) and election manifesto/promises (20%). Ethnicity was considered the least significant factor (2% of respondents), while religion polled just 7% amongst the respondents.

Survey Results.

This survey shows that Nigerian’s want the President to prioritise tackling the problems in the nation’s power industry. In addition, the majority of Nigerians do not consider a zoning formula necessary in the emergence of presidential candidates but feel that selection of candidates should be based on their level of competence.

Survey Methods:

Respondents for the snap poll were randomly selected from a database of phone-owning Nigerians aged 15 and above, compiled by NOI Polls. 1,207 people took part in the telephone interviews from the 27th and 30th of April, 2010. For a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2.82 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani's Gallopedia website.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 121

Dated 23-29 May, 2010
week’s report consists of 24 surveys. 2 of these are multi-country surveys while the rest are national surveys. 14 polling organizations have been represented.


ASIA zone-1 national polls& 2 Multi National poll:
GCC: Bahrain

Central Asia: Azerbaijan, Armenia

West Asia: Afghanistan

South Asia: Bangladesh, Pakistan

Northeast Asia: Philippines

South East Asia: Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia

Middle East & North Africa: Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt

AFRICA zone- 2 Multi national polls:

West Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Mauritania, Mali, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Senegal,

Southern Africa: Comoros, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa

Central Africa: Chad, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, DR Congo, Rwanda, Níger

East Africa: Kenya, Djibouti, Somaliland


EURO-AMERICAS zone-21 national polls & 2 Multi national polls:

East Europe- Russia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Moldova, Macedonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovenia, BiH, Belarus, Austria, Albania

West Europe- Ireland, UK

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Peru, Panama

Subjects covered include:

Politics and Elections

Political economy

Security
Governance

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Environment

Commentary: Russia’s current Political landscape

[1]Most people in Russia would support the governing party in the next election to the State Duma, according to a poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center. 54 % of respondents would vote for United Russia (YR) in the next ballot, up two points since April.

The Communist Party (KPRF) is a distant second with 8 %, followed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) with 5 %, and the opposition movement A Just Russia with 4 %.

Earlier this month, Putin rejected accusations that Medvedev is a puppet president who is easily manipulated by him, saying, "Our actions are guided exclusively in the interests of our country and the Russian people. We divide up our competencies in accordance with the constitution and Russian legislation."

The next presidential election is scheduled for March 2012. Both Putin and Medvedev are eligible to run as candidates.

[2] Meanwhile according to another poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center almost half of Russians would vote for current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin or current head of state Dmitry Medvedev in the next presidential election. 27 % of respondents would support Putin in the next election, while 20 % would re-elect Medvedev.

Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov is far behind with 5 %, followed by Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky with 4 %, and Russian Federation Council speaker Sergei Mironov of A Just Russia with 1 %. 43 % of respondents are undecided.

Polling Data

If the presidential election took place this Sunday, who would you vote for? (Open-ended)

Apr. 2010

Nov. 2009

Aug. 2008

Vladimir Putin

27%

27%

33%

Dmitry Medvedev

20%

18%

14%

Gennady Zyuganov

5%

4%

4%

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

4%

3%

3%

Sergei Mironov

1%

--

--

Aman Tuleyev

--

1%

n.a.

Other mentions

1%

2%

n.a.

Other / Not sure / Would not vote

43%

45%

46%


Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Apr. 16 to Apr. 19, 2010. No margin of error was provided.

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the election to the State Duma?

May 2010

Apr. 2010

Mar. 2010

United Russia (YR)

54%

52%

53%

Communist Party (KPRF)

8%

8%

7%

Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)

5%

5%

5%

A Just Russia

4%

4%

4%


Source: All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted on May 14 and May 15, 2010. Margin of error is 3.4 %.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 120

Dated May 16-22, 2010

This week report consists of 25 surveys including 3 multi-country surveys. 13 polling organizations have been represented.

ASIA zone-3 national polls& 1 Global poll:
West Asia: Turkey

Northeast Asia: Japan

AFRICA zone- 1 Global poll:

EURO-AMERICAS zone-19 national polls, 2 Multi national polls & 1 Global poll:

East Europe- Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic

West Europe- France, Germany, Ireland, UK

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil, Mexico, Colombia

Australasia: Australia

Subjects covered include:

Politics and Elections

Political economy

Security
Governance

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Religion

Immigration

Commentary:

Mexico's Drug War: View’s on both sides of the Border

Neither Americans nor Mexicans favor U.S. military intervention[1]

Americans and Mexicans have strikingly similar attitudes about the drug war in Mexico, according to a study conducted by Harris Interactive and its global network partner, Indemerc, in early May 2010.

39 % of both American and Mexican adults believe Mexico is a failed state, which is a striking characterization of the Mexican government; notably, its policies and the potential solutions it offers to the Mexican drug war.

Both American and Mexican adults agree that the Mexican drug cartels and drug lords bear responsibility for the current drug war. 90 % of Americans say the drug lords are very or somewhat responsible for the current drug war and 87% of Mexicans say the same. However, American drug consumption is cited widely as a cause, as well: 88% of Americans and 75% of Mexicans say it is very or somewhat responsible for the drug war.

Mexicans also place a significant amount of blame for the Mexican drug war on American gun dealers. 81 % of Mexican adults say American gun dealers are very or somewhat responsible for the problem, compared to 54% of Americans who say the same. Mexican adults also blame corrupt U.S. authorities for the problem more than Americans do with 85% of Mexicans saying the corrupt U.S. authorities are to blame, compared to 60% of Americans. However, majorities of both Americans and Mexicans feel that corrupt Mexican authorities are responsible for the drug war - 84% percent of Americans and 88% of Mexicans say this.

"The enormous coincidences in opinion between Mexicans and Americans are surprising with respect to the war on drugs," commented Dr. Carlos Moreno Jaimes, Chief of the Social, Political, and Judicial Studies Department for ITESO. Dr. Moreno continued, "Citizens from both countries think that drug lords are the main cause of the war and also accept that both societies have contributed to the problem: Americans for their high consumption of narcotics and Mexicans for the corruption of authorities. The most important implication of the poll is that the solution to the problem should come from a joint effort of the two countries, but not a military intervention. It is also clear that the Mexican government's strategy is not perceived as an effective one." §
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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani's Gallopedia website.