Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 119

Dated May 09-15, 2010
This week’s report consists of 22 surveys. 1 of these is a multi-country survey while the rest are national surveys. 13 polling organizations have been represented.

ASIA zone- 2 national polls:
West Asia: Turkey

AFRICA zone- 1 National Poll & 1 Multi-Country Polls:

West Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Mali, Niger

East Africa: Kenya

Central Africa: Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Cameroon, DRC, Chad, Burundi

Southern Africa: South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia

EURO-AMERICAS zone-18 national polls:

East Europe- Ukraine, Russia

West Europe- France,

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil, Peru

Australasia: Australia

Subjects covered include:

Politics and Elections

Political economy

Security
Governance

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Religion

Immigration

Commentary:

Constitutional Reforms and the Future of Turkey-

‘The Most Democratic Muslim State’

Turkey is among the most prosperous and democratic Muslim countries. However it also has a long history of military involvement in politics as well as restricting political activity by way of banning political parties in the name of preserving the secular traditions of the Turkish Republic established by Kemal Attaturk. Given this dichotomous history the current constitutional reform package has initiated a hot debate in all the political circles in the country. Some critics are of the view that it will result in the banning of the ruling AKP leading to early parliamentary elections. Given such a scenario how would Turkey’s bid for the EU fair? Or conversely are such aspirations a credible deter for any drastic steps in the national arena?

Since AKP came to power in 2003 there have been several occasions when it came into conflict with the constitutional courts and the military. Despite holding a majority in parliament, several of the initiatives of AKP have been stopped by the judiciary. In 2008, the constitutional court annulled a bill aimed at ending the ban on Islamic headscarves at universities. This year, the AKP was irked by the decision of the HSYK, a panel of the judiciary known for its anti-government stance, to fire a prosecutor who was investigating an alleged coup attempt against the government. Now the AKP says the constitutional court and Turkey's Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) need to be reformed. Critics say the government wants to control the judiciary. In the same stead it is feared that if such an amendment is passed the secular nature of the Turkish republic will cease to exist.

The proposed reforms will make some 30 amendments to 1982 constitution. These deal with the appointment of judges, banning of political parties, and trying the military leaders in civilian courts along with several other changes suggested in the package. Primarily the package directly hurts the interest of the constitutional courts and military leaders.

European Union, U.S, and legal scholars have welcomed the reforms. The Turkish public too seems to support the reforms package. The polls indicate that in the case of a referendum, half of the Turks will vote in favor of the reforms.[1] Meanwhile the opposition parties and circles of constitutional courts seem to oppose the package staunchly. Tayyib Eurdogan, still widely deemed as the most trustworthy politician[2] in the country, vows that his party ‘will either write history or become history’.

Amid this situation, is it likely that the constitutional courts will follow through on dismantling the AKP’s efforts once again as they did in case of efforts to lift the hijab ban from universities? Will AKP also become history as was the case with Rifah and other political parties? Or conversely would the AKP’s stance drastically harm the nation’s secular setup?

[1] http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/35473/turks_would_vote_to_have_a_new_constitution/

[2] http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-210402-103-local-party-leaders-to-decide-baykals-fate.html

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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani's Gallopedia website.

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 118

Dated 02-08 May, 2010

This week’s report consists of 18 surveys. 2 of these are multi-country surveys while the rest are national surveys.

ASIA zone- 2 national polls:
North East Asia: Japan, Taiwan

AFRICA zone- Nil

EURO-AMERICAS zone-16 national polls and 2 Multi-Country Polls:
East Europe- Slovenia

West Europe- France, Italy

North America- U.S.A
Latin America- Brazil, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Columbia, Guatemala, Honduras, Venezuela, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay

Australasia: Australia

Subjects covered include:
Political economy

Security
Governance

Technology

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Migration

Religion

Three-in-Five Taiwanese Dissatisfied with Ma

May 06, 2010

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many adults in Taiwan remain critical of the way Ma Ying-jeou is handling his duties, according to a poll by Global Views. 61.4 % of respondents are dissatisfied with their president’s performance, down 4.6 points since March.

In 1895, following a military defeat, China ceded Taiwan to Japan. At the end of World War II, the island was returned to Chinese control. In 1949, as Mao Zedong’s communists were gaining prominence in mainland China, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek established the Republic of China in Taiwan.

A series of democratic reforms implemented by Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui in the early 1990s allowed Taiwan’s residents to take part in free and fair elections. To this date, the People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan a "renegade province" and reserves the right to bring it under control.

In March 2008, Ma won the presidential election with 58.45 % of the vote as a candidate for the Kuomintang Party (KMT). Frank Hsieh of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) finished second with 41.55 %.

The KMT advocates for maintaining the status quo with the Chinese central government, while the DPP has aggressively pursued independence from Beijing.

Last month, Ma discussed the current state of relations with China, saying:

"This is a very meaningful job for Taiwan at a historic juncture. If we can contribute to peace and prosperity across the Taiwan Straits, the accomplishments would be historic…Diplomatic isolation can be handled, and we handle it well, but with economic isolation we have to be very careful. If we lose the market share in a given country it will be very difficult to get it back."

Polling Data

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Ma Ying-jeou’s performance as president?

	Apr. 2010	Mar. 2010	Jan. 2010
Satisfied	26.6%	23.8%	23.2%
Dissatisfied	61.4%	66.0%	66.3%

Source: Global Views
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,001 Taiwanese adults, conducted from Apr. 14 to Apr. 16, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 %.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/three_in_five_taiwanese_dissatisfied_with_ma

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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani Research Foundation website.

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 117

Dated 25 April- 1 May, 2010

This week's report consists of 23 surveys. 3 of these are multi-country surveys while the rest are national surveys.

ASIA zone- 1 national poll and 2 Global polls covering:
Middle East & N.Africa: Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Jordon, Lebanon,

West Asia: Turkey

South Asia: Pakistan,

South East Asia- Indonesia,

North East Asia: Hong Kong,

AFRICA zone- 0 national polls & 2 Global Polls covering:

West Africa: Nigeria,

EURO-AMERICAS zone-19 national polls and 1 Multi-Country Poll & 1 Global poll covering:
East Europe- Russia,

West Europe- UK, France,

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil,

Subjects covered include:
Politics and Elections
Political economy

International Security
Governance

Social issues/ Health and Disease

Migration

Environment

Commentary on Gallopedia Polls Week # 117

8 of 8 - Educating Boys and Girls in the Muslim World

In all eight predominantly Muslim nations surveyed in 2009 a strong majority say it is equally important to educate girls and boys. This opinion is shared by more than eight-in-ten in Lebanon (96%), Indonesia (93%), Turkey (89%), Pakistan (87%) and the Palestinian territories (85%). Very few in any of these countries say education is more important for either boys or girls. In Egypt (16%) and Jordan (19%) a considerable number say it is more important to educate boys, but in both countries (12% in Egypt and 15% in Jordan) comparable percentages say it is more important to educate girls. Only among Nigerian Muslims do far more say it is more important to educate boys (29%) than say it is more important to educate girls (2%); still a majority (68%) says girls and boys should be educated equally. Egalitarian views are somewhat more widespread than in 2007 in Pakistan (+13 percentage points) and the Palestinian territories (+11 points).

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Pew Global Attitudes Project

http://pewresearch.org/databank/dailynumber/?NumberID=960

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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani Research Foundation website.

Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 116

Dated 11-17, 2010

This week’s report consists of 24 surveys. 2 of these are multi-country surveys while the rest are national surveys.

ASIA zone- 3 national polls and 1 Global poll covering:
Middle East & N.Africa: Israel, Palestine, Egypt

West Asia: Turkey

Central Asia: Azerbaijan

South Asia: Pakistan, India,

South East Asia- Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand,

North East Asia: Japan, China

AFRICA zone- 0 national polls & 1 Global Poll covering:

West Africa: Ghana, Nigeria,

East Africa & Horn of Africa: Kenya,

Southern Africa: South Africa,

EURO-AMERICAS zone-20 national polls and 2 Multi-Country Polls & 1 Global poll covering:
East Europe- Czech Republic, Russia,

West Europe- UK, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal
North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Haiti

Australasia: Australia

Subjects covered include:
Politics and Elections
Political economy

International Security
Governance

Sovereignty and Nationalism
Social issues/ Health and Disease

Environment
Commentary on Gallopedia Polls Week # 116

Philippines Democratic Credentials

After gaining independence in the wake of the Second World War, the Philippines adopted U.S.-style democracy. With elections scheduled for May 10 this year, polling organizations have been tracking approval ratings of candidates in the country. According to a poll by Pulse Asia the Liberal Party (PLP) could gain control of the two highest political offices in the Philippines garnering 37% of the votes for PLP presidential nominee Benigno Aquino III. Senator Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party (PNP) is second with 25%, followed by former president Joseph Estrada of the Force of the Filipino Masses (PMP) with 18%.

Given the competitive nature of political activity, the multiplicity of representation and active public campaigns, many would deem the Philippines political system as exuding healthy signs of democratic maturity. However many believe the country is still infested by clan-politics and election- related violence.

Aquino III is the son of former president Corazon Aquino, the widow of murdered opposition leader Benigno Aquino, who came to power through a series of massive demonstrations known as "People Power", toppling the regime of democratic ruler turned Dictator, Ferdinand Marcos. Corazon remained an extremely popular figure in the country, until her death in August 2009 following which her son Aquino III officially launched his bid as a Liberal Party (PLP) candidate.

Arroyo her self is the daughter of former Philippine President Diosdado Macapagal. She was elected to the vice presidency under President Joseph Estrada in 2001, despite having run on an opposing ticket. Following corruption allegations against the president, Arroyo resigned and joined the growing opposition. She was elected to a full six-year presidential term in the controversial May 2004 Philippine elections. At present the second longest serving president Arroyo is constitutionally barred from seeking a reelection.

A nation with a turbulent political history, the Philippines has weathered martial law, coup attempts, emergency impositions, political assassinations and election violence.

The first martial law was imposed in the post colonial state in September 1972 under the 10th President Ferdinand E. Marcos, widely deemed as a ploy to prolong his reign beyond the term limit imposed by law.

Meanwhile despite her popularity Maria Corazon had to face a series of nine coup attempts against her administration during her tenure.

There were also rumors following President Arroyo’s controversial election regarding plans to impose martial law to put an end to military coup plots, general civilian dissatisfaction, and criticism of the legitimacy of her presidency. Instead, a "State of National Emergency" was imposed which lasted from February 24, 2006 until March 3 of the same year.

Following the election-related massacre of 57 people on November 23, 2009 in Maguindanao, President Gloria Arroyo imposed martial law in the southern province. Andal Ampatuan Jr., a local mayor and the alleged mastermind of the massacre, belongs to the powerful Ampatuan clan, Arroyo’s major ally in Mindanao. Meanwhile some Opponents accuse President Arroyo of fomenting a political crisis in the Philippines to discredit the electoral process and continue to rule, even though the constitution prohibits continuation beyond one 6 year presidential term.

Violence in the run-up to elections is not uncommon in the country. The Maguindanao massacre, however, was deemed the worst politically motivated violence in recent Philippine history. At present despite a state of Red Alert in the country, the highest security level, with all military and police personnel on constant stand-by, reportedly election related violence continues. Police figures released on April 26 showed that 27 people, including city councilors, village councilors, village leaders and common people were killed and 37 people were injured between Jan. 10, when election campaigns started, and April 25.

However the Philippine nation continues to tout ‘democratic governance’ and seems steady on the path of popular voting. One however questions whether the political institutions have acquired the requisite degree of stability in order to override the effects of popular agency in the political arena. At what stage of maturity should one deem the Philippine political systems? §

Polling Data

Of the people in this list, for whom would you vote for as president of the Philippines if the elections of 2010 were held today and they were presidential candidates?

	Mar. 2010	Feb. 2010	Jan. 2010
Benigno Aquino III	37%	36%	37%
Manuel Villar	25%	29%	35%
Joseph Estrada	18%	18%	12%
Gilberto Teodoro	7%	7%	5%
Eddie Villanueva	2%	2%	2%
Richard Gordon	2%	1%	1%
Other / None / Undecided	9%	7%	8%

If the coming 2010 elections were held today, whom would you vote for as vice-president?

	Mar. 2010	Feb. 2010	Jan. 2010
Mar Roxas	43%	43%	47%
Loren Legarda	23%	27%	28%
Jejomar Binay	19%	15%	13%
Bayani Fernando	3%	4%	2%
Eduardo Manzano	2%	2%	2%
Perfecto Yasay	1%	1%	1%
Jose Sonza	0.5%	1%	0.2%
Dominador Chipeco	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Undecided / Other	9%	7%	7%

Source: Pulse Asia
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 3,000 Filipino adults, conducted from Mar. 21 to Mar. 28, 2010. Margin of error is 2 per cent

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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani Research Foundation website.