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Monday, April 5, 2010

Commentary on Gallopedia Polls Week # 110

Dated 7-14 March 2010
This week’s report consists of 23 surveys. Four of these are multi-country surveys while the rest are national surveys.

Disapproval of Taliban: Disapproval of violence in Pakistan & Afghanistan?
Last week Gallup USA survey made headlines in newspapers regarding the increasing unpopularity of the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan.[1] The survey shows that there is very little support left for the ‘Taliban’ among the populations of these two countries. This is especially true of Pakistan according where just 4 percent of the people still believed that the ‘Taliban’ have a positive impact in some areas of the country. Meanwhile almost 8 in ten said they have a damaging affect on the country. To what extent can this be considered a victory for U.S? is it depictive of a pro national sentiment in Pakistan that sides with the government and the military operations in the north and along the western borderlands.
Pakistanis witnessed the deadliest attacks in the year 2009 after the military launched its campaign against the ‘Taliban’ in South Waziristan. Hundreds of people lost their lives in suicide and car bomb blasts in almost all the major cities of Pakistan. North West Frontier province was the worst hit, where consequently the support for the Taliban has sharply fallen. Baluchistan was least affected by the wave of violence; as the survey depicts, still a quarter of the residents see some positive aspects of the Taliban.
Disapproval of the Taliban cannot perhaps be directly translated as approval of the U.S or the war on terror. Perhaps even the approval of Pakistani military offensive against the Taliban would be too ambitious an assumption. This is evident in surveys depicting a further decline in U.S. favorability ratings in Pakistan[1] and Afghanistan[1]. These subtle dichotomies are relayed in the sentiment that disapproves of military offensive, by national as well as international forces, as the sole strategy in effect. The recent Afghanistan conference in the UK that outlined a tentative ‘exit strategy’(if not exactly in those terms), perhaps shows an inclination towards softer strategy tools that perhaps would sit well with popular opinion among the domestic audience. §
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The complete detailed weekly reports of the project can be found on theGilani Research Foundation website.

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