Gallopedia Highlights- Week # 128

Dated 11^th – 16^th July, 2010

This week’s report consists of 31 surveys. 2 of these are multi-country surveys. 14 polling organizations have been represented.

ASIA zone-2 national polls:
Northeast Asia: Japan

Middle East: Palestine, Israel

EURO-AMERICAS zone-27 national polls & 2 Multi national polls:

East Europe- Russia, Ukraine, Slovenia, Poland, Moldova, Macedonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Belarus, Albania,

West Europe- France, UK, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Austria,

North America- U.S.A, Canada
Latin America- Brazil

Australasia: Australia, New Zealand

COMMENTARY: Serra and Rousseff Contest Tight Election in Brazil

July 15, 2010

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Conservative candidate Jose Serra and left-leaning contender Dilma Rousseff are neck-and-neck in the race to become Brazil’s next head of state, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. 39 per cent of respondents would vote for Serra of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) in this year’s ballot, up two points since May.

Rousseff of the ruling Workers’ Party (PT) is a close second with 38 per cent, followed by Marina Silva of the Green Party (PV) with 10 per cent. 12 per cent of respondents remain undecided or will cast a blank ballot.

In a run-off scenario, Serra is ahead of Rousseff by a razor-thin margin of two points.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva—a member of the PT—won the October 2002 presidential election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against Serra. In October 2006, he earned a new four-year term, defeating PSDB candidate Geraldo Alckmin with 60.8 per cent of the vote in the second round.

Lula has publicly endorsed Rousseff as his preferred successor. In February, the PT officially selected Rousseff as the party’s presidential candidate.

In March, Rousseff stepped down as Lula’s chief of staff and Serra resigned as governor of the state of Sao Paulo in order to launch their presidential bids.

On Jun. 30, Serra presented Indio da Costa, a lawmaker with the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), as his running-mate. The PMDB is the second largest opposition group in the legislature after the PSDB. Serra introduced da Costa, saying, "He’s a young man, but experienced. We are two different generations together."

Lula is ineligible for a third term in office. The first round of Brazil’s next presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 3.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the 2010 presidential election?

	Jun. 2010	May 2010	Apr. 2010
Jose Serra (PSDB)	39%	37%	42%
Dilma Rousseff (PT)	38%	37%	30%
Marina Gomes (PV)	10%	12%	12%
Blank vote / Undecided	12%	14%	16%

Run-Off Scenario

	Jun. 2010	May 2010
Jose Serra (PSDB)	47%	45%
Dilma Rousseff (PT)	45%	46%
Blank vote / Undecided	8%	9%

Source: Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,658 Brazilian adults, conducted on Jun. 30 and Jul. 1, 2010. Margin of error is 2 per cent.

SOURCE: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/serra_and_rousseff_contest_tight_election_in_brazil

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